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Friday 15 June 2018

Laurentian Bank is on the Comeback Trail

       Laurentian Bank was trading around $60 per share just 5 to 6 months ago.It had a relatively small mortgage debacle and the stock fell at first to the $50 level and then fell again to the present $45 level.CMHC had to buy back quite a few mortgages(probably at a discount) and then CMHC sold about $115 million mortgages back to Laurentian (probably at a deeper discount).An earlier blog on Workathon estimated that the total cost at perhaps $.10 to $.20 per share.However now it is clear that the loss of confidence in Laurentian Bank management is at the root of the matter.As Laurentian Bank just released it's second quarter report on June1 which was a good one and the stock fell another $1 per share.
                But it was a Good Second Quarter
   Total  revenues increased by $21 million to $260 million from $238 million.And net income was $60 million or $1.34 per share compared to $1.19 per share for Q2 2017.And diluted earnings per share were $1.47 up from $1.39.And most importantly the quarterly dividend was raised $.01 to $.64 per share.In addition, they raised their Tier1 capital ratio went from 8.1 to 8.6% showing a higher degree of safety for shareholders.
    LB made other changes as well.They sold their agriculture loan portfolio for a net gain of $5 million.Their loans to business customers was up almost 20% and they acquired Northpoint Commercial Finance (NCF)  and CIT Canada.This brings their total assets to $48 billion and AUM(assets under management) to $31 billion.                                     
More Work to Do
Investors have seen the quarterly report which came out on June 1 and have not bid the stock up.It is not likely that they were unimpressed with LB performance but perhaps not sure if there will be more underwriting problems on their mortgages.In effect, their underwriters have underestimated the risk of default.This blog suggests that investors need more time to see if these problems have been remedied and if their new acquisitions will be accretive also.However adjusted net income for the six months period was up 23% and adjusted net income per share up 5%.So it is likely that the stock price will move towards $48 by the third quarter report.Hopefully the underwriting problems will all be resolved by then.          https://accweb.mouv.desjardins.com/identifiantunique/identification?domaineVirtuel=desjardins&langueCible=en;https://www.brookfield.com/