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Wednesday 19 November 2014

Southern Pacific has an operational update

On October 27 Southern Pacific had an operational update for Q3.It was a report on the operations of their Mackay plant and the Senelac plant.Their workover was completed on 5 well pairs and are back onstream.4 well pairs had workovers successfully completed and a fifth was deferred until later.Production at two well pairs was only 200 to 250 barrels per day.Total production at the Mckay installation was 2000 barrels per day and at Senelac it was 1300 to 1400 barrels per day.Overall production then was 3400 barrels per day.There has been no production at the Phase L installation at Senelac ; it is scheduled for December.
      Comparison to other juniors
 An earlier blog on Tumblr compared Southern Pacific(STP) to two other juniors-BNK Petroleum and Argent Energy.Production at that time was about 4500 barrels per day.STP had predicted that once well bore conformance was obtained production might reach 7000 barrels.It was on track to match these other two juniors.And Phase L (at Senelac) was going to be producing probably in December.
 Then STP carried out a Strategic Review Process and investors reacted by sending the price down from the $.20 to $.25 area to the present $.025 to $.03 area.This is an overreaction.If you compare STP to other heavy oil producers it can be seen as oversold.For example, Palliser Oil is another heavy oil producer and it has production of only 1200 to 1700 barrels per day.It's assets are only $104 million and shareholder equity of $35 million.Yet it trades at $.065 per share.Another example is Rock Energy,another heavy oil producer. It has production of about 4800 barrels per day and assets of only $170 million with shareholder equity of $116 million.This heavy oil producer trades at about $4.00 per share.This indicates that STP should at least be trading at $.10 to $1.5 per share.  
             More Strategic Reviews                                                        It is true that Southern Pacific's production fell in this quarter from about 4200 barrels per day to 3400 barrels partly because of conformance problems in the newer wells.But this has now been almost remedied and approvals are in place to increase production up to 7000 barrels per day.In conclusion, if Southern Pacific's management had comforted it's shareholders more then it's shareholders would have given it a more reasonable share price now.This blog predicts that the price will stay in this price range until production is back up around 5000 barrels per day.Any further strategic reviews should be kept in the boardroom.

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