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Friday 23 January 2015

Northland Power still on track

On January12,2015 Northland Power announced an update on developments at several Canadian projects.Also they announced that they will meet guidance on 2014 EBITDA and 2015 EBITDA and on their payout ratio.They stated that they will give more details in their annual report on February 18.Northland has taken on two big projects(both wind projects in Europe);one is called Gemini which will produce 600MW and it has a 2.8 billion Euro price tag and the second a 332 MW project in the North Sea near Germany.The second is called Nordsee and has three components(Nordsee One,Two and Three).Nordsee One is under advanced development and has  been awarded power contracts already.Nordsee One may be ready for commercial operations by late 2016 or early 2017.
    Canadian projects
Northland Power has made developments  in four Canadian projects.This ,in effect, tightens things up for their two big projects.The first is Kirkland Lake Generating station and it has a new 20 year contract up until August 2035 for a 30 MW gas generating station;it provides stable revenues until 2035.The second is the Cochrane Generating station.It will get an extended contract until May 2015.This will give it time  to negotiate a new  long term contract.The third one is Phase 3 of their ground mounted solar projects which has a capacity of 40MW.They signed a contract with two First Nations organization which gives them a combined 37.5% equity interest in 4 Phase 3 solar projects in Northern Ontario.The total consideration is for $46 million for which about $15 million will be a take-back loan.This is the final 4 of the total of 13 solar projects.Northland has had good increases in cash flow for the last two quarters and is expecting an increase in Q4.It is clear that Northland needs profit from it's Canadian operations to finance these two large international projects and they are getting it. 
      How well are they doing
Northland Power has had significant increases in cash flow and is expecting continued increases.It's Canadian operations have been very successful to date.But Northland is planning for the future with it's two large European projects.Many brokers may have underrated their profitability.Northland says it is on track to meet 2014 and 2015 guidance.If true then earnings per share measured by EBITDA would be around $2.50 per share.However a better measure would be adjusted EBITDA which would be properly about $2.25 to $2.35 per share.In 2015 if they meet guidance, e.p.s. could be as high as $2.50 to $2.60 per share.This can easily support a price per share of $19.Some brokers may worry about their rising payout ratio but Northland says even as it rises, their dividend will be safe.So it is fairly clear that Northland is still on track and is preparing adequately for it's Gemini project. 

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