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Tuesday 24 February 2015

What's it all about?

I started doing blogs on Wordpress.At first it looked like I had only a little space in the blog and so I used it for suggestions on possible combinations and mergers for stocks.There was no formal structure in place so I never knew if my suggestions were acted upon or not.So in effect it was like a bulletin board for interested parties. If interested parties liked the ideas in the blog they could act upon the suggestions.There was never any compensation for these ideas or "notes".                                                                                               I did write one or two long blogs on Wordpress but mostly these were saved for my two blogs on Blogger called Blogdaleupsome and Workathon.I tried for a third blog on Blogger but could not get it.
     The Two on Blogger
These two blogs are really like small articles in a magazine.The main purpose is to get readership and to increase readership.Just like all authors;these blogs are trying to get a bigger audience.In the case of Blogdaleupsome and Workathon the idea is to get more page views and Google will check and give the blog a higher "page ranking".This has not happened to these two blogs yet.And yet for  every blog on these two websites Google itself has one or more page views.Theoretically Google could transfer my blog to another of their blogs and sell them on their own site.This,of course, if they did it, would keep my page ranking lower than it should be.
  After all blogging is about advertising and I, like all other bloggers, are trying to get my readership higher so more page views can be translated into advertising.Products advertised on the blog are more likely to be tried if the author seems  believable.Google calls this monetizing your website.So far I have been unable to raise my page ranking and unable to monetize my website.This however may come with time as Google checks my blog again and raises the page ranking.Many readers use search engines to pick their blogs and those with a higher page ranking always get more page views and hence more advertising.
  Another Business Blog
Both of my blogs are about business.In particular,they analyze quarterly reports and forecast revenues and profits and earnings per share.Blogdaleupsome likes to point out stocks that trade at a low earnings multiple and are a bargain in comparison to other stocks.It is intended as an information centre to advise readers that there are stocks that are bargains and that investors can make money on.Blogdaleupsome tries to make corporate reports more transparent so readers can see good investment opportunities to make money.This will bring readers to the blog without them even knowing what the current article is about.They should feel that they can always find bargains on this site.Many do.
 The main purpose of Workathon is to sort through the business and engineering details and point out to more sophisticated investors and to senior corporate managers things that might improve revenues or profits.It is not clear that many or even any managers read this blog but if they do they might find strategies to improve their business.It must be pointed out that these managers do not give me direct feedback on my ideas but sometimes I can read about changes(I suggested) made in their way of doing business.By far the best feedback I get is through the price of the stock that I write my blog about.Sometimes I see immediate price increases and sometimes slow but steady rises.
 Recent Examples
One recent example is Crocodile Gold.A company press release pointed out that there were new gold extensions running from their existing Fosterville mine.They estimated the gold resource at about 2 million ounces.I recalculated the ore body using their information and estimated the size of the resource at 3 to 5 million ounces.The main fact that I used was the high grade of the ore in the new fault.A recent press release shows that there are intercepts with very high grades of gold and imply that the ore body could easily be close to 3 to 5 million ounces of gold.The price of the stock has not risen yet because the company is not able to increase it 's production immediately and the price of gold has fallen again.But this stock will rise in price soon.
 Another company where this blog pointed out a resource much bigger than originally stated was Twin Butte Resources.They bought a property(light oil) from another privately run company; the original pools of oil were reported to be much smaller than they actually were.I used the fine details in their press releases(2or3 of them) to point out to readers of the blog that in fact the pools were bigger than  thought and there were other pools connected to them.Twin Butte  has still only hinted at these new pools and the total size of the resource.In both these cases readers have gotten better information and more clear information from reading these two blogs but particularly Workathon.By the way ,Workathon has found other anomalies that the reader could have benefitted from.
Workathon discovers anomalies that make investors profit

Wednesday 18 February 2015

Chorus Aviation signs deal with Bombardier

On February2,2015 Chorus Aviation announced that it had signed an agreement with Bombardier Aircraft to buy 13 Q400 NexGen aircraft with an option to buy 10 more.The firm order is valued at $424 million US and could increase to $758 million US with the options.Chorus also announced a maintenance agreement that will extend the life of their Dash8-300 aircraft by 50% or15 years.The agreement covers a minimum of 19 aircraft and will start in early 2017.It is not known how many aircraft this will eventually cover but it is known that Bombardier has firm orders for 534 Q400 aircraft.The Dash8-300 is a top performing turboprop and has been around for two decades.The order size for Dash8-300 aircraft should be somewhat smaller.This will make for a sizeable maintenance business arising from the Dash8-300s. Chorus adds that they are the world's largest operator of Dash 8s;this new agreement will extend the life of their Dash-8s by up to 15 years.The announcement did not say whether the agreement applied to the Dash8-100s.
  The Program
 The Dash8-300 is an efficient turboprop that holds 50 passengers.It is well-suited to short and medium haul which makes it perfect for regional aircraft.Chorus says that it will put out a Service Bulletin for operators to read and follow.Chorus will also arrange for the replacement of some structural and systems compoents.It does not say if Bombardier personnel will play a part in this program.But it is known that Chorus has a large and well-run maintenance program in Halifax;also Chorus just bought an expert maintenance facility called Telesys.Chorus has been gradually building a maintenance arm to their operation and this will be even bigger by early 2017 when this agreement takes place.It is very likely that by then the agreement will be extended to the Dash8 -100s as well.It is clear that by 2017 Chorus will start to bring in significant revenues from this operation.
 


Thursday 12 February 2015

Crocodile Gold gives resource update

On February2,2015 Crocodile Gold gave an update on the size of the resource in the Fosterville mine deposit.Back in March 2014 Crocodile Gold revised the size of the resource to about 2.2 million ounces but it also reported extensions from the Phoenix and the Lower Phoenix faults.My blog in Workathon(in Blogger) used their information and concluded that the resource could be as large as 5 million ounces.It really depended on the mineralization in the extensions.Now Crocodile says that they have found three new faults,namely the Lower Phoenix Footwall Fault and the Kestrel Fault and The East Dipping Fault.The grade of the gold in the three new faults is reportedly very high.
    Two Mines or One
 Crocodile Gold says in their update that this"may represent a second gold event".This means that the grade of the ore reported by Crocodile is much higher than that mined in  the Fosterville mine.For example, one of the intercepts in the Lower Phoenix Footwall fault measures 294 grams per tonne over 1.85 metres and also123 grams per tonne over 9.45 metres.This is either a phenomenonal resource or the grade is very inconsistent over the whole strike.But if the grade is consistent over the fault then Crocodile may have two good mines not one Fosterville mine.Crocodile says that they have drilled 490 metres north of  the Lower Phoenix structure and 100 metres south of the Lower Phoenix structure.It would certainly be economical to have two mine entrances ;one in the north and the existing entrance.This ,in theory, would increase production.Secondly it would have production from a new mine entrance and theoretically a new mine.
   The Royalty Agreement
  Crocodile Gold had a net cash flow agreement with Aurico Gold relating to the production from the Fosterville and the Stawell mines.This recently was replaced with a smelter royalty agreement whereby Aurico is paid 2% of production from the Fosterville mine.If these drill intercepts are typical of that in the entire structure then it is possible that the resource in the Fosterville mine could be as  large as 4 to 6 million ounces.However if there are two mines instead of one would the royalty on the second mine be only at .5 or 1% of the production? Perhaps the mine production is not as important as the amount of gold that is produced by the smelter.
    Raising their guidance
Unfortunately for Crocodile Gold investors either seem to not believe them or are not impressed by this update.After all it was released on February 2 and the stock has not reacted to this immense amount of gold  in these extensions that they are calling the Lower Phoenix Footwall fault, the Kestrel fault and the East Dipping fault.In addition,Crocodile Gold has not raised it's guidance from that of 2014.It's guidance is still for 205,000 to 220,000 ounces of gold.If this update was accurate would guidance not be for 250,000 to 300,000 ounces of gold for 2015 and 350,000 to 400,000 ounces for 2016.Investors are either very naiive or very slow to react to this massive gold deposit in these three new faults.