Enerplus increases N. Dakota acreage by 4 times and increases Dividend

  This was the first time that Workathon has covered the Enerplus story.And this coverage  was partly because Enerplus had a very active year in 2020.Enerplus is a rare entity as it gets a substantial amount of it's oil and gas production from American properties.Enerplus acquired two sizeable pieces of acreage in the Williston Basin in North Dakota.In fact, their acreage in North Dakota which is a core asset, is now 4 times bigger than in 2020.And the oil produced in the Bakken area in North Dakota earns W.T.I. prices not Western Canadian Select prices.Their timing appears to be excellent as oil prices have increased by almost 60% since the summer of 2020.Enerplus management has seen their stock price move from $2.50 a share in the summer of 2020 to $8.50 in 2021.  

First Quarter Highlights

 Production  showed a slight drop in output from Q1 2020. While funds from operations (FFO) increased from $1.51 in Q1 2020 to $2.08 in 2021.Most importantly e.p.s. went from $.01 to $.06 in Q1 2021 while adjusted net income went from $.09 to $.023 per share.And cash flow was robust enough to increase their dividend by 10% to $.033 per share which is considered a quite substantial dividend hike. 

 Williston Basin Properties

Enerplus produced only 6300 barrels from their first acquisition called the Bruin property in Q1 .It should probably get 35,000-40,000 barrels of production for the rest of the year.It also got 204 MMcf of natural gas from their Marcellus property.Since the acquisition, ERF has drilled 3 new producing wells in the Williston Basin.And Enerplus tells shareholders that it intends to spend 80% of their capital budget in the Williston Basin drilling 42 new well during 2021.

Annual Guidance

It is hard for ERF to accurately estimate what their production of oil,gas and liquids will be for the rest of the year.They offer an estimate of 111,000-115,000 of Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) for total production in 2021.If true this would indicate a 20-30% increase.But this likely includes very little production from their new producing wells plus their wells just being drilled.And likely their revenues and earnings forecasted will be low as this blog sees further increases both in the price of oil and natural gas in 2021.The price of natural gas has doubled since the summer of 2020 as it moves with the price of crude oil.This blog sees that the adjusted net income reported for Q1 ($.23 per share) should be increasing every quarter of 2021.Consequently adjusted net income should be in a range of $1.10-$1.25 for 2021.And the P/E ratio could be as high as 8 to 10 times so this could put the price by yearend at $10-$12 per share.Investors need to watch the production and net income results in Q2 to see if this forecast will be accurate.

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Oceanagold increases reserves in U.S.A (Martha Underground) and New Zealand (Golden Point) will meet Annual Guidance

First Quarter Highlights

On May11, Oceanagold (OGC) reported it's first quarter results and they were better than expected.By now all OGC shareholders know that their Didipio mine in the Phillipines was closed by the Phillipine government in late 2019.See the blog on April8,2020 in my Wordpress EconothonII website.And now it is being studied for environmental damage by the Phillipines Ministry of Environment.Didipio contained 1.3 million ounces of proven reserves.But shareholders are starting to learn that OGC has replaced their lost reserves with previously undiscovered reserves in their U.S.A mine (Martha Underground Project)and their New Zealand mine( Golden Point in the Macraes discovery).But even less shareholders realize that production in 2021 is up from 2019.

Quarterly Highlights

Total production of gold by Oceanagold  in Q1was 83,000 ounces and this is up from 80,000 ounces in Q1 2019.And adjusted EBITDA is also slightly ahead of the 2019 value.While earnings per share has recovered from a ($.04) loss in 2020 to a $.02 profit in 2021. Q1Yet the share price remains about half of the price before the Didipio mine closing.                

Meeting their Guidance

Oceanagold has  replaced both the lost reserves and production from it's Didipio mine in the Phillipines.And this blog believes possibly that the ore body at the Macraes mine is still underestimated.That aside,production at this point is sufficient to meet annual guidance given at the first of 2021.In addition,the price of gold is moving up again slowly partly dependent on the huge American deficit.Many analysts,including this blog, see the price of gold breaking old price records.So OGC should be back at $4.50 where it was in 2019.And earnings per share is on track to hit 2019 levels.

The only drawback facing Oceanagold now is the slow decision by the Phillipines to return the Didipio mine to production.Oceanagold trades on the Canadian TSX exchange.But it is listed in Australia also.This blog feels that asking the Australian government to negotiate with it's smaller neighbour,the Phillipines, might speed up the return to production.And any news here will send OGC back to it's 2019 levels or maybe even $5.00.

 https://www.moneysense.ca/

Northland Power beefs up the Balance Sheet by buying Poland's Baltic Power

Northland Power (NPI) is an utility covered many times in both my Workathon and Blogdaleupsome websites.It has gone from a regional energy provider to a global energy source.One major step was the construction and financing of three world class wind farms in the North Sea.Since 2017 NPI built Gemini (369MW) off of the Dutch coast and Nordsee One (285 MW) plus Deutsche Bucht (250MW) off of the German coast.However the North Sea is a volatile environment with the strongest winds in the world.And so the second step was acquiring solar powered operations in Mexico and Columbia .And in addition, building 3 more wind farms offshore Taiwan of which they owned 60% of 1044 MW.It is true that the second step has not been totally completed.This blog considers their investment in Poland  with Baltic Power to be a major third step.

Baltic Power

Northland Power has acquired a 49% interest in Baltic Power from PKN Orlen of Poland.Poland offers the largest market in central Europe and PKN Orlen is the largest utility in central Europe.Poland is considered to be a substantial market for power in Europe. Baltic Power is considered to be in mid-development stage.Yet it has the potential of generating 1200 MW of power; the same power generation as the 3 wind farms offshore of the German-Dutch coast.Before this plant is completed NPI must invest another $110 million CAD.When it is completed Northland expects a 25 year power purchase agreement.

Fourth Quarter Highlights

On February 22 (after the Baltic Power agreement) Northland reported it's fourth quarter results.It is not clear whether Q4 results included results from their new New York winds project.However annual revenues and earnings showed good improvement over 2019.Annual e.p.s. were solid  and on track to hit $1.75-$1.85 per share for 2020.But this blog believes that e.p.s.will show only a slight increase over 2019.

2020 Forecast

The annual report showed that e.p.s. for 2019 was $1.75 per share.Guidance states that annual e.p.s. for 2020 will be in a range from$1.60-$1.70.This blog agrees with this assessment.The New York winds project will contribute to 2020 earnings.But Baltic Power will not be able to generate earnings likely until 2022.However there is capacity for a total of 4-5 GW of power for the entire Polish  project.While Hai Long 2 and 3(offshore Taiwan) will not contribute until 2025.In summary, 2021 may be an average year for Northland but investors who can wait for Q4 of 2021 or Q1 of 2022 will be amply rewarded.  https://www.fool.ca/

 

Past Workathon Blog Predictions on Go Easy Financial

 In the past, my blogs have been based on the change shown in the present quarter made in the subject company from the last quarter and the past year.This blog will look at predictions made in Workathon and Blogdaleupsome blogs which are both a part of Google Blogger.There will be less emphasis on comparing the data from one quarter and one year to the present quarter.Instead more emphasis will be put on the change in direction from the past quarter and past year. As well as the direction predicted in past Workathon blogs.                               The two blogs that I will rely on for these predictions are- February25,2020 and October4,2020 on my Blogdaleupsome website.And the direction predicted ,in general, was that the growth in revenues must get back to the levels seen in 2017,2018 and 2019.In addition, they must keep up their work on controlling the delinquency rate on loans.Lastly they should increase their stake in the small online payments company called Paybright.

       Predictions

   So the first blog was done on February25,2020 and it stressed the importance of increasing it's non-prime lending and leasing  to include loans for customers to pay off bills and debts.This has been done and loan originations have risen in response.The February blog also recommended tightening up it's loan process so as to reduce it's delinquency rate and this has been a big success in GSY increasing it's margin.And it has now had continuing record high adjusted EBITDA.This blog also recommended buying a small furniture company like GBT in Quebec in an attempt to increase revenues on it's consumer goods side.This did not happen yet.

    The second blog was posted on October4,2020.First it predicted that the annual earnings for 2020 would be between $6.50-$7.00 per share.These figures underestimated Go Easy as GSY reported annual earnings of $7.57.Once again showing an increase in the margin while revenues were close to the estimate.Secondly this blog approved the minority interest taken in a small online payment company called PayBright.In fact,this blog recommended increasing their stake here.As it would further modernize Go Easy and could increase their P/E  multiple.However instead GSY sold it's stake in Pay Bright to a company called Affirm.Although it made a handsome profit this could restrict future growth in the growing online area.                                           

 

      Future Predictions

  Now Go Easy has a market capitalization of about $2 billion.If it is going to get to $4 billion then some of the changes already made must continue and some new ones implemented.The improvements on the delinquency rate should continue.But the growth in revenue is waining.Go Easy must make a few acquisitions on the consumer goods side such as a small furniture maker or  a small appliance maker to bolster consumer goods sales.But the biggest change recommended is to continue it's relationship with PayBright and to find another online payment company to include under the Go Easy umbrella.In order to increase it's growth in revenue GSY must have a greater online presence and the profits made from PayBright  should make it easy to do.As said in the earlier blogs this will increase it's P/E ratio and send the price towards $135 per share.     

     https://www.woodbridgegroup.com/ 
 

Aimia is almost over Aeroplan ;Moves on to new Investments

 

 Aimia is a Canadian company with loyalty solutions;it is not tremenduously popular and has a market cap of only $425 million.But Workathon has been interested in it for some time when it suffered embarrassment after it sold it's chief asset,the very popular Aeroplan loyalty program, for little proceeds.This was an embarrassment but now Aimia is almost over this fiasco and is starting to move on.Consequently in the last quarter it collected $66 million from one account and $3.5 million for another.And Aimia is using the proceeds to invest in new companies that are providing it with income.

      Third Quarter Highlights 

   Aimia made several new initiatives in Q3.It had already acquired Mittleman Investment Management in Q2 with assets under management (AUM) of $201 million.And in Q3 it invested $9.2 million in an Australian entertainment company called Village Roadshow.And it also invested $10.5 million in a leader in outdoor advertising called J.C.Decaux.But,of course, the big item will be the receipt of about $70 million from their Aeroplan program.Aimia also tells shareholders that it's 49% owned loyalty program called Kognitiv will have a positive adjusted EBITDA and cashflow in 2021.However Q3 will show a net loss of $.15 per share in comparison to $.11 per share income in 2020. 

    Aimia needs more Loyalty

    This is a bit of a pun because Aimia needs more loyalty from it's shareholders which will then bid the share price up.But taken in another sense this blog believes that Aimia should stick to it's core business of loyalty programs like PLM.There is almost $70 million coming in as retribution for Aeroplan in this quarter but is this enough?Aeroplan is still the biggest loyalty program in Canada by far.And it took 17 years for Aimia to build Aeroplan to it's present successful state.Basically Aimia got $450 million plus all liabilities covered with a few sweeteners for a $2.5 billion loyalty program.And that is why the old board members are no longer with Aimia.          

     Right now this blog feels that the new board lacks focus in it's new investments.Although Kognitiv shows promise this blog thinks that almost all of the $70 million coming should be spent on loyalty programs.For example,why not buy Avion or a good chunk of it from Royal Bank.If Aimia is still short of a majority position surely Air Canada (the new Aeroplan owner) will throw in another sweetener to a very sour deal.

                          https://www.aimia.com/

Blackline Safety Posts Record Year

     Blackline Safety (BLN) had a record year in 2020 - a year not great for business because of the pandemic.But annual revenue,at $38 million, was 15% better than 2019 and Q4 revenues were up 31% to $7 million.But BLN was more proud of it's recurring revenues which at $25 million were ahead 42% from 2019.BLN was proud because they recorded these gains in the year of the pandemic.And there were fewer products shipped because of the pandemic.Fourth quarter revenues were especially strong with a 31% increase to $12 million.

     Annual Highlights  

    BLN had a moderate growth year in 2020 with revenues increasing by 15%.And their gross margin showed some improvement because of BLN's better market share.As a result BLN showed significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA from $.5 million in 2019 to $5.5 million in 2020.But still does not record any net income as they showed a small net loss in 2020.BLN expects revenues to grow only to $35-40 million in 2021.But using the fourth quarter as a benchmark this blog thinks that annual revenues should be $45-$50 million.And this increase might improve their margin by another 1%.Blackline must increase adjusted EBITDA and show a small net income in 2021.         

 

     If Blackline cannot improve it's overall market share then it must make one or two small tuck-in acquisitions.Revenues must be increased to cover overhead costs and earn a net income in 2021. It could be said that 2021 is close to or is a breakeven year.It is time to show earnings and e.p.s. for it's shareholders and new investors.

     It is true that BLN had a record year but it's guidance at $35-$40 million will not increase EBITDA and net income sufficiently.It is time to make some nimble moves to increase revenues.Guidance should be in the $45-$50 million area.And this will take at least one accretive acquisition.If this is done then it's shareholders can expect the share price to move gradually towards $9.50-$10.00.      https://www.zacks.com/   https://www.moneysense.ca/ 

 
 

Tucows reports 4th Quarter Results on February 9

     Yes the CEO,Elliott Noss, is working on the fourth quarter report in order to be ready for the February 9 publication.Both Tucows and it's CEO have been the subject of several blogs on Workathon,Blogdaleupsome on the Blogger website  and Econothon on the Wordpress website.The message has been to stop total reliance on registering and cataloguing internet domaine names for their earnings.And also to make more than one acquisition in a separate but closely related field.As Tucows has relatively few shares outstanding and little debt (recorded on it's balance sheet).Still this blog is aware that Noss has hired two top talented staff to work for it's subsidiary called Ting,a mobile internet service.So what can Elliott Noss tell shareholders in it's fourth quarter and 2020 annual report?

       Domaine Names

   Mr. Noss has not completely ignored the messages given on Workathon dated July1,2020 and Blogdaleupsome on November14,2020.The message is the same as the one given several times in 2019.Whether because of this advice or for other reasons Tucows started to sell off domaine names in Q2 of 2019.This bloated earnings and cash flow but reduced revenues.It also appears that some of their high salaried board members($500,000/yr.) have been dropped which, if true,has created significant savings.So revenues have been reduced but expenses have been pared down.Although e.p.s. has remained substantial their P/E ratio moved from 20 to 50.            

         But the Share Price is just Fine

    So e.p.s. remains substantial but the P/E ratio has increased.This is because the share price has fallen only slightly from it's high reached in 2019.Investors remain confident that Elliott Noss will produce new earnings.And,in fact, the share price has not suffered tremenduously.It has drooped, down to the $85 area, but then bounced back up in the $100 area where it now remains.This blog feels the secret is connected to the arrangement made for it's small mobile internet company called Ting in southern U.S.A. with the DISH network.It has even taken on new staff to manage Ting.Tucows has told shareholders that it has little equity left in Ting.But Noss has been silent on his position and the equity in the high-flying DISH stock.Although no new shares have been raised to buy DISH stock Tucows may have an option to buy at an earlier,cheaper share price.Right now many shareholders are hoping that is true but we should know more on February9.  www.woodbridge.com   ;www.canadianmoneysense.ca