how slow a slow down

• I heard the most recent forecast for the Canadian economic growth rate for 2013 by the I.M.F.They are forecasting a growth rate of 1.5% down from the earlier forecast of 2.0%.I myself have collected I.M.F. information when I was in the federal civil service.It is not that accurate because the people collecting it are not paid to do so.Nevertheless their forecasting record is pretty good.It is likely that they will be within the normal forecasting error.Noone would be surprised to see the growth rate come in at 1.7% after this forecast.
• At the same time I have to admit that I do not have a working econometric model to use.In addition,my data is not that accurate for most of the important inputs used to come up with an accurate growth rate for 2013.However I think that the I.M.F. prediction is dependent on the price and volume of exports for both oil and natural gas.A price of $95 a barrel for oil and $5 for natural gas will skew the growth rate upwards.Heavy exports of oil and natural gas (and this depends on finding new customers besides U.S.A.) will also likely skew the economic growth rate upwards.More investment will go into drilling and exploration for both oil and gas.Then it is likely that our growth rate may even hit 1.75% for 2013.This will help us until the price of other commodities start to recover and they will.