I have let readers of my blog know that I have hung out my shingle and am looking for consulting business.Some might reply to Workathon and some might send me an email.Google Analytics shows that Workathon gets a lot of readers.So far there have been no contacts.I have explained in previous blogs that I have my Master's degree in Economics plus one course short of my M.B.A. and four or five courses short of my Chartered Management Accounting degree.But these are simply letters on my shingle.This does not guarantee practical advice to any" wannabe" customers.They want practical experience.
So I can add that I have worked as a management consultant in the federal government and as an economist in the federal government.However potential customers in the Huronia region know that industry in this region is quite different than working in the federal government. And they are right.
The real world
After I left the federal government(as a civil servant) I had to get licences to work in the industrial town of Cambridge (8 miles from Kitchener).The first licence I got was a real estate licence and I worked for two years with a company called Olsen Real Estate.My first year I was in the middle of the pack;half sold more than me and half sold less.But the next year was a recession and lots of people left real estate and I was one of them.Still I had 10 to 15 listings and 15 to 20 sales.I had partly learned the trade.Next I turned to stocks and bonds and mutual funds. I studied for three months and took my exam and passed the Canadian Securities Course(C.S.C).I mostly sold mutual funds as people wanted to buy stocks and bonds from larger companies.But the mutual funds I sold did very well.Lastly I decided to get my life insurance and accident and sickness licence.I passed it right away.At first I sold for Mutual Life acquired by Clarica and then Sun Life.But I was much more successful selling it with my own company as a self employed agent.I found a number of small companies that competed on lower prices and I did sell quite a bit of insurance.In particular these small companies offered health insurance that I sold to seniors and people who travelled to the south for winter.This was quite successful for awhile.It is primarily because of this experience that I think I can offer acceptable advice to small companies in this region. But it is nice to have a few letters on my shingle.
Monday 31 March 2014
Saturday 22 March 2014
SAGD ain't so easy
SAGD stands for steam assisted gravity drainage;it is the most frequently used method of mining heavy oil.The idea is to drill two parallel wells about five to six metres apart.Steam goes into the top well and bitumen goes into the bottom well.The heat from the steam turns tar into bitumen.The bitumen is them pumped to the surface.
Southern Pacific Petroleum has a SAGD system in Fort Mackay, Alberta and one in Senlac, Saskatchewan.It has three well pairs for each.It has four well pairs that are in conversion to the production phase and five others that are in the pre-conversion stage.But from the three in the production stage at Mackay in September Southern Pacific got only 850 barrels per day in order to repair the steam chambers in the top well.Production climbed slowly in November, December and January.The company at first used high pressure steam stimulation (HPSS) to increase daily production.But this was found to be not effective enough although it did stimulate production.Then Southern Pacific turned to another method called inflow control device(ICD) and production has responded. Production from the Mackay facility is now up to 2187 barrels per day and total production is now almost 4300 barrels per day.It is still down from production in the third quarter of 5000 barrels per day.Southern Pacific reports that the flow form one of their well pairs now is even 200 barrels per day higher at the peak rate .Also the four new well pairs will soon be ready to come onstream.
The next quarter
During this hiatus, production at Senlac, Saskatchewan has remained stable.But Southern Pacific needs production now to rise at Senlac.But ,of course, the bigger problem is at Mackay.Production figures which are given every month(in an operational update) needs to be close to 2300 barrels per day at Mackay ; then total quarterly production will be close to or exceed the September 2013 figures.If that happens and Southern Pacific management thinks it will then STP should trade at October levels of about $.70 per share.The price per share now is less than $.30 and this blog expects the price to move slowly up to September levels.At this point it seems like STP is only experiencing growing pains and needs (ICDs) in a few more well pairs until the new well pairs come onstream.
Southern Pacific Petroleum has a SAGD system in Fort Mackay, Alberta and one in Senlac, Saskatchewan.It has three well pairs for each.It has four well pairs that are in conversion to the production phase and five others that are in the pre-conversion stage.But from the three in the production stage at Mackay in September Southern Pacific got only 850 barrels per day in order to repair the steam chambers in the top well.Production climbed slowly in November, December and January.The company at first used high pressure steam stimulation (HPSS) to increase daily production.But this was found to be not effective enough although it did stimulate production.Then Southern Pacific turned to another method called inflow control device(ICD) and production has responded. Production from the Mackay facility is now up to 2187 barrels per day and total production is now almost 4300 barrels per day.It is still down from production in the third quarter of 5000 barrels per day.Southern Pacific reports that the flow form one of their well pairs now is even 200 barrels per day higher at the peak rate .Also the four new well pairs will soon be ready to come onstream.
The next quarter
During this hiatus, production at Senlac, Saskatchewan has remained stable.But Southern Pacific needs production now to rise at Senlac.But ,of course, the bigger problem is at Mackay.Production figures which are given every month(in an operational update) needs to be close to 2300 barrels per day at Mackay ; then total quarterly production will be close to or exceed the September 2013 figures.If that happens and Southern Pacific management thinks it will then STP should trade at October levels of about $.70 per share.The price per share now is less than $.30 and this blog expects the price to move slowly up to September levels.At this point it seems like STP is only experiencing growing pains and needs (ICDs) in a few more well pairs until the new well pairs come onstream.
Wednesday 19 March 2014
Putting out a shingle
In previous blogs I told about getting my Master's degree in Economics and most of my M.B.A.However I still encountered difficulties and left my job in the federal civil service.My last job was as a senior economist.I left Ottawa and worked for awhile in real estate.I decided that I needed more practical education and enrolled in a program to get a C.M.A (chartered management accountant).I met a C.M.A administrator and he told me that I had to take my courses at an university. In this case he suggested Wilfrid Laurier University;it had a pretty good business school and offered night courses.
Education
I told the administrator that I had obtained a Master's degree in Economics and most of a M.B.A at the university of Ottawa.He told me that I would have to be tested to see if my level was high enough to get credit for the courses I took at the C.M.A.level.Like I had done for my M.B.A credits;I had to pass a course in Statistics at the 70% level at Sir Wilfrid Laurier University.I took it and passed at the required level.I believe that there were about 15 courses to get your accreditation.I think I now had credit for about 10 courses, including my economic courses which were obligatory.Next I had to take Advanced Management Accounting..I had a hard time here because the homework was supposed to be done on a computer spreadsheet;however the exam could be done by hand.I barely passed it but I passed.Now I had only about four courses to go to get my accreditation.The next course was Advanced Finance and I enrolled.Here I found out that you were expected to own a computer and everything was done on computer spreadsheets(including the exam).I dropped out after three classes.However I did get a taste of what was required to be a C.MA.This experience along with my M.B.A.(minus one course) and my Master's in Economics made me ready to do some consulting I felt.
Experience
These course should qualify me for many(but not all) management consulting jobs, especially in the immediate region I am in.It certainly was handy using it to write my blogs.I have a variety of tasks that I do on my blogs;I offer clarification on technical quarterly performance reports and financial events relating to a number of companies( many of which I own and have a keen interest).I offer advice on technical and financial problems that these companies (listed on the T.S.X) have to improve earnings and the price of shares.However the hope is that regional companies will read my blogs and comment or email me to ask for advice through texting or in person.This is my goal.So far I have no comments nor emails from interested companies.The kind of project I would like is improving efficiency,increasing revenues(organically or through mergers or acquisitions).I have most of my experience in doing this through my blogs but I do have some consulting experience in the federal civil service also.
Fees
My fees would be similar to most lawyers (on a contingency basis).The more complex the project, the higher the fee but no fee until the problem is solved.Many small projects would require only 5% of the money involved.Bigger and more complicated projects would earn 20 to 25 % of the return to the customer. send inquiries to workathon or to daleandmac@gmail.com
Education
I told the administrator that I had obtained a Master's degree in Economics and most of a M.B.A at the university of Ottawa.He told me that I would have to be tested to see if my level was high enough to get credit for the courses I took at the C.M.A.level.Like I had done for my M.B.A credits;I had to pass a course in Statistics at the 70% level at Sir Wilfrid Laurier University.I took it and passed at the required level.I believe that there were about 15 courses to get your accreditation.I think I now had credit for about 10 courses, including my economic courses which were obligatory.Next I had to take Advanced Management Accounting..I had a hard time here because the homework was supposed to be done on a computer spreadsheet;however the exam could be done by hand.I barely passed it but I passed.Now I had only about four courses to go to get my accreditation.The next course was Advanced Finance and I enrolled.Here I found out that you were expected to own a computer and everything was done on computer spreadsheets(including the exam).I dropped out after three classes.However I did get a taste of what was required to be a C.MA.This experience along with my M.B.A.(minus one course) and my Master's in Economics made me ready to do some consulting I felt.
Experience
These course should qualify me for many(but not all) management consulting jobs, especially in the immediate region I am in.It certainly was handy using it to write my blogs.I have a variety of tasks that I do on my blogs;I offer clarification on technical quarterly performance reports and financial events relating to a number of companies( many of which I own and have a keen interest).I offer advice on technical and financial problems that these companies (listed on the T.S.X) have to improve earnings and the price of shares.However the hope is that regional companies will read my blogs and comment or email me to ask for advice through texting or in person.This is my goal.So far I have no comments nor emails from interested companies.The kind of project I would like is improving efficiency,increasing revenues(organically or through mergers or acquisitions).I have most of my experience in doing this through my blogs but I do have some consulting experience in the federal civil service also.
Fees
My fees would be similar to most lawyers (on a contingency basis).The more complex the project, the higher the fee but no fee until the problem is solved.Many small projects would require only 5% of the money involved.Bigger and more complicated projects would earn 20 to 25 % of the return to the customer. send inquiries to workathon or to daleandmac@gmail.com
Sunday 2 March 2014
About Me
Most blogs have an About Me section displayed prominently beside the blog itself.I have added to the profile but blogger will not take the adjustments I make.So I have added this blog to explain about me.I have in various blogs on Workathon told about professors and courses that I took getting my master's degree in economics.The chairman for economics at the University of Ottawa was a professor called De Kuiper;he had been a former Chief Statistician from Statistics Canada and the chairman of graduate studies in the department was a man called Willy Sellekaerts who had won a Fullbright scholarship at William and Mary University.Fullbright scholarships are more rare and harder to get than Rhodes scholarshiops;he was a very studied man.
In addition, I got my M.B.A (in finance) at the university of Ottawa.In fact, I did not get a diploma because I didn't complete one introductory course in personnel management.
Better information
I discovered reading company reports (quarterly reports and information reports) that many of these reports were too technical and not clear.I thought many shareholders would not be able to understand them.This is what many of the blogs in my other blog(calledBlogdaleupsome) does;it explains more clearly these reports and reads between the lines.I figure that this might be worth something to quite a few shareholders and so my blog would be well read.The blog(Blogdaleupsome) also forecasts revenues and earnings,including earnings per share. Shareholders who have lots of information on forecasted earnings may read my blog and decide for themselves if my forecasts are accurate or not.However I never just forecast I always provide information on some aspect that is not covered by other brokers such as an interesting investment the company could make.
Arbitrage
I also look at value pricing;I find companies that,for example,have very low earnings and the price of the shares does not properly reflect it.I ,in that case, may point out that the proper value of the lower-priced stock should be more in line with other higher-priced stocks.There are many examples of this on the T.S.X.For example, the P/E ratio for one stock may be well below the industry or the index average.My blog would try to point out this situation.This might reduce the shareholder equity for the over-priced stock but more likely will raise the price of the lower-priced one.In other words I am counting on this blog to make better investors of at least a few shareholders and increase the equity of a few companies.That is the raison d'etre of both blogs and that is something About Me.
In addition, I got my M.B.A (in finance) at the university of Ottawa.In fact, I did not get a diploma because I didn't complete one introductory course in personnel management.
Better information
I discovered reading company reports (quarterly reports and information reports) that many of these reports were too technical and not clear.I thought many shareholders would not be able to understand them.This is what many of the blogs in my other blog(calledBlogdaleupsome) does;it explains more clearly these reports and reads between the lines.I figure that this might be worth something to quite a few shareholders and so my blog would be well read.The blog(Blogdaleupsome) also forecasts revenues and earnings,including earnings per share. Shareholders who have lots of information on forecasted earnings may read my blog and decide for themselves if my forecasts are accurate or not.However I never just forecast I always provide information on some aspect that is not covered by other brokers such as an interesting investment the company could make.
Arbitrage
I also look at value pricing;I find companies that,for example,have very low earnings and the price of the shares does not properly reflect it.I ,in that case, may point out that the proper value of the lower-priced stock should be more in line with other higher-priced stocks.There are many examples of this on the T.S.X.For example, the P/E ratio for one stock may be well below the industry or the index average.My blog would try to point out this situation.This might reduce the shareholder equity for the over-priced stock but more likely will raise the price of the lower-priced one.In other words I am counting on this blog to make better investors of at least a few shareholders and increase the equity of a few companies.That is the raison d'etre of both blogs and that is something About Me.
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