Changes in the Uranium industry

The spot price of uranium was around $70 to $72 a pound before the Fukishima nuclear accident in Japan.This caused the price to dive down to the $45 a pound area.It has been creeping back to the $55 a pound area.Germany has or is closing several nuclear plants also.But new plants are opening in India and China because it is a low cost alternative to produce electricity.
The American scene is slightly different as there is no shortage of electricity but nuclear generation is preferred because it is cleaner and safer.There is only one   nuclear incident in the last ten or so years.Also the price of natural gas and oil is rising.So it is not surprising that a small uranium producer in Wyoming(Ur-Energy) has pulled down a contract for 90,000 pounds at an average price of $62.92 per processed pound.Some of this contract may have gone for $65 per pound.This is a very small portion of the resource in U.S.A  But it is important to note that it is an American producer and an American user.However this may be the start or even the continuation of a trend.As both small and large producers are starting to rise in their share prices.Energy Fuels which has one of two processing plants in U.S.A has seen it's price(after splitting) go from $5.75 per share to$6.20 per share;Denison Mines has seen it's price go from $1.05 per share to around $1.35 per share and lastly Cameco,the biggest Canadian producer, has seen it's price go from $18.00 per share to $22.25.Most of this increase has been in a few months except or since  October.This increase in the price of uranium has resulted in an increase in Cameco's market capitalization of $2 billion in two months.
A lot of the smaller uranium companies were starting to consolidate because there is not enough contracts around .Mega Uranium,in particular, has bought a few small companies and now sees that it 's acreage is worth more now .Also Denison Mines has a huge amount of acreage mainly in the Athabasca basin in Alberta;now it has a more valuable resource to buy other small companies.It just bought a company called Rockgate Capital.Mnay of these deals are all share deals.Look for more consolidation in the uranium industry and one or two producers to rise from junior to mid-tier status if the trend continues in uranium prices.One will likely be Denison Mines with it's huge acreage and one may be Ur-Energy with it's processing plant and excellent acreage near the plant.

The orbit theory(details)

The orbit theory has been used to explain the gradual warming of the earth over the last century.This theory is based on the knowledge that the universe is not constant in size but is expanding in size;it is moving outwards.This results in our entire solar system moving outwards.The planets will move at different speeds.Smaller planets will move faster than larger planets just as a baseball  will move faster than a basketball.Consequently the earth will move  faster than the sun outwards.
Genesis
Apparently it took almost 400,000 years for the universe to expand or move in  any way.Like a ball of cellophane that is all rolled up.Now the universe is several million years old  and has unwrapped at first at greater speed and then at a slower speed.I believe that at this age the  unwrapping (or expanding) has slowed down.It is easy to think of  it  as billions of planets wrapped into a ball and gradually expanding outwards.As our solar system moves outwards the planets will move at a different rate than the sun.But the differential in speeds is decreasing.                                          There is only a finite amount of energy in the universe.  As it unwraps,energy dissipates and the unwrapping or expanding slows down.Now the universe is several million of  years old and is slowing down in it's expansion.
Centrifugal forces
The earth is caught in a belt or zone in it's orbit around the sun.It will move to the edge of the envelope(containing the orbit) because of the "extra" speed it has because of moving faster than the sun.However it is believed that the universe is slowing down in it's expansion outwards because of it's age.There will gradually be less and less force to move the earth to the edge of it's orbit zone and it will move back to it's original orbit.
The proof
The proof is the  reason for having a theory at all.The earth has unexpectedly warmed up 3 to 4 degrees above the average temperature over the last century.As the differential between the earth's and the sun's speed reduces, the theory expects that the earth's warming will increase only slightly and then start to cool down.The earth's orbit will gradually return to it's original shape.

The hydrocarbon theory(implications)

Many scientists today still believe that excessive hydrocarbons in the atmosphere are the cause of "global warming".Industrial processes (primarily combustion) release CO2 and hydrocarbons,including carbon particulates,that change the density of clouds in the atmosphere.The sun's rays in theory can penetrate the clouds and electromagnetic belts around the circumference of the earth and strike the earth warming it up.However the solar rays
bounce back into the atmosphere and now can no longer escape the clouds.This warms up the atmosphere -apparently 3 to 4 degrees over the last century.However this theory has some technical difficulties.
History
There have been times in the past when the measurement of hydrocarbons in the atmosphere has been higher than today.The temperature was lower than today not higher.This may be explained because it takes many years of cloud buildup to raise the temperature even 1 degree Celsius.Therefore there is not a strong ,tight correlation between hydrocarbons in the atmosphere and an increase in temperature,or if you want there is a lag in the correlation.
The Surface 
The sun's rays only release solar energy(or photons) when they are at the right angle of entry and hit the right surface.There is a significant release when a  ray hits a solid material or surface.But there will not likely be a major release when it hits a gas like water vapour or carbon dioxide.
Air Pollution
Americans and Europeans complain that a large source of air pollution comes from the tar sands.There is a large release of carbon dioxide and other hydrocarbons.A lot of hydrocarbons and CO2; but not all of it rises.Some ends up falling to the earth and a lot goes into the ocean and falls to the seabed.So it does not seem likely that this significant release is impactful enough to make the clouds so dense that it  prevents the sun's rays from escaping the atmosphere.Nor does it seem that hydrocarbons mixed with water vapour would be able to trap the rays inside the atmosphere.
Conclusion
The position of the Americans and Europeans is that an increase in production of heavy oil will increase air pollution and lead to an increase in global warming.But there is no conclusive proof that increasing heavy oil production will cause the earth's temperature to rise in a significant way. send consulting business to daleandmac@gmail.com

more ripple effect

Yesterday's blog talked about the ripple effect  related to improvements to the rail into Churchill and to the port.The ripple or waves emanate from the original investment and have secondary effects.So the improvement of the port causes a number of secondary investments such as motels and lodges in Churchill.The previous blog talked about expected secondary investments made by Nunavut.There is no way to check and see if these investments have been made or will be in the future.However there is another indicator of the kind of increases that can come from the ripple effect.Another company that was given notes and help is called Logistec.It is a Quebec based company and handles various aspects of moving cargo.They were told that they would get some help on a new installation in Churchill.Two notes were made in August and the stock was trading about $27 to $29 a share.It is not known what they did if anything but there is a vacuum in the north for companies like Logistec and now the company trades at $56 a share.This is an increase in equity of about $125 million.It is hoped that Nunavut got the same kind of ripple effect.Logistec will get further help on any other projects in the north.

The ripple effect

Yesterday's blog(on Blogdaleupsome) talked about project work that was done on Churchill,Manitoba.I have seen in the Globe and Mail the changes to the port recently.This construction and the renovations to the rail  had an impact on several stocks including Stantec, Canadian Pacific and Canadian National Railway.It was also stated that the amount of impact on each company                 is difficult to tell.It is also difficult to tell the impact on Nunavut Territory.It is important to have a healthy Nunavut Territory in the Eastern Arctic.This is our Canadian presence in the Eastern Arctic.
Before the project work was given out to improve the port at Churchill some notes were directed towards Nunavut.It was pointed out that investments in Churchill might be profitable later as Churchill must become larger and more prosperous in the future.I thought that a lodge might be susccessful and a bay in the harbour for smaller craft.Churchill could be an

important transshipment point for communities on the west side of Hudson's Bay and Southhampton Island.Nunavut could also possibly do resupply to Quebec communities on the east side of Hudson's Bay.It  is not certain how much investment Nunavut made in Churchill nor how great an opportunity they took.But it is certain they will benefit in some capacity.There should be some ripple effect from a stronger Churchill.

Two theories - a big difference

Environment and weather experts have noticed a gradual increase in temperature over the entire earth over the last century and the last two decades in particular.One theory I have called the hydrocarbon theory;it posits that industrial processes that require  combustion release more and more hydrocarbons into the atmosphere.These hydrocarbons combine with the water vapour in clouds to form more and more dense clouds.These clouds have particulate matter and new gases that are more dense than ordinary clouds.These clouds allow the sun's rays to hit the earth's surface and after losing much of it's energy(largely photons) they do not have enough energy to bounce back and escape the magnetic belts and the new dense clouds.So the sun's rays remain in the atmosphere and warm up the earth's temperature as much as 3 to 4 degrees over the last century.
The second theory (the orbit theory) believes that the earth is largely contained by centrifugal forces to stay in a tight band rotating around the sun.This tight band is compromised by the movement outwards of the earth at a faster rate than the sun is moving.This process moves the earth closer to the sun as this tight band is stretched but not broken.In fact, as the earth's movement outwards starts to slow down the normal orbit will gradually take shape again.This theory believes that the earth may warm up another 1 or 2 degrees and then start to cool.
The difference is that the earth is not warming up because of  industrial processes and for example the combustion used to create heavy oil in the Alberta Tar Sands does not affect "global warming"

the orbit theory (implications)

The orbit theory looks at the universe for the grounds of it's theory.The universe has been expanding for many years now.It is impossible to tell whether it is expanding at an increasing or decreasing rate.It will expand outwards away from the centre at first at an increasing rate and then at a decreasing rate as the amount of energy stored up will gradually dissipate.The expansion has been caused by the energy of all the galaxies being compressed into a small space and gradually expanding outwards like cellophane rolled into a ball.But there is a limit to the expansion as there is to the cellophane expanding.There is a finite amount of material in both balls.
Slowing down
It is possible that the difference between the speed of the earth and the sun (travelling outwards from the centre) will soon reduce;if it has not already done so.If the earth was going to move out of it's orbit instead of just bending  it's shape then it would likely have done so already.It can almost be guaranteed that the rate of expansion of the universe has been greater in the past

 than it is today.It is the velocity of the earth travelling outward that might take it out of it's present orbit.However if it has broken out of it's orbit envelope the warming of the earth would have been greater than it's present rate of increase which is roughly 3 to 4 degrees over the last century.After all,the difference in the phases of the orbit around the sun can make the difference between summer and winter or 80 to 100 degrees.So in conclusion the earth's orbit may be bent or misshaped but still in the same orbit.

the hydrocarbon theory(part 2)

The hydrocarbon theory states that solar rays pass through the clouds and the electromagnetic waves and the global electromagnetic belt to hit and warm up the earth's surface. Some of the heat energy is lost passing through the atmosphere and partly penetrating the earth.But the rays bounce back into the atmosphere.Here they are trapped by the clouds which are made more dense by the CO2 which has escaped from our industrial processes.These trapped solar rays heat up the atmosphere and have raised the temperature over the last two decades by 3 or 4 degrees worldwide.
However the earth is warmed by the heat energy that is in the photons in the rays.We know from solar panel theory that some surfaces heat up the panels more that others.This heat is converted into electrical energy.But if we put a container of water vapour (cloud matter) and water,together with materials like carbon fibre and gallium oxide we would see that the photons do not discharge much into the first two materials.In addition there are more photons and hence electricity created by the gallium oxide than from all others.
Solar rays may bounce back from the surface but they will not discharge many photons into water vapour.Even water vapour with hydrocarbons in them.

This theory may account
for some of the increase in temperature referred to as global warming but certainly not all of it as it looks. 

the orbit theory (newly consructed)

The orbit theory has been formed largely by observation.The first part of the theory admits  that the universe is expanding as astronomists have observed.However since it is impossible to determine how fast or slow; it assumes that the universe is expanding slowly.So the earth is moving faster than the sun as it has been agreed.But still at a not a great velocity in terms of the differential between the sun and the earth.In other words, the earth is only moving slightly faster than the sun.Consequently there is not a great deal of force in this dimension.
The centrifugal force keeps the earth at an almost constant distance from the sun.This is the earth's orbit.However the differential force with the sun does pull it out of orbit slightly. The orbit is elliptical in nature.Pulling it out of orbit in the long side of the  ellipse  will pull it out at the pointed part, or the end, as well.The shape of the elliptical orbit will tend to correct itself over time.It is believed that the centrifugal force is stronger  than the differential velocity and be more important for a body the size of the earth.
This change in the orbit has caused  the change in temperature.This is easy to observe because when the earth moves from summer to winter the earth has moved through it's orbit.This change in temperature has been caused by the earth moving through it's elliptical orbit.There has been an increase in overall earth temperature over the last several decades but it is possible that the orbit will correct it's shape and return to it's old shape.This will bring world temperatures down again.

the hydrocarbon theory(as I understand it)

The  hydrocarbon theory refers to the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere going into the cloud bank above our atmosphere and creating a barrier that traps the sunlight and raises the temperature.This of course, causes global warming.This theory has a few inconsistencies.
It is commonly known that there is an electromagnetic field above the earth that protects the earth from all kinds of radiation(including solar radiation).This apparently weakens the solar rays but in addition the clouds weaken the solar rays.According to this theory the sunlight is weakened by the electromagnetic field,the clouds and by penetrating the earth.However the sunlight is still strong enough to raise the temperature of the earth in the summer to 30 to 35 degrees Celsius.This is quite a bit of solar energy but according to this theory after heating the earth the rays are then not strong enough to escape the cloud bank.Especially when the clouds are made more dense by Co2.Clouds are made up mostly of water vapour but when reinforced by Co2 they are now dense enough to trap the sunlight and force the temperature higher and higher.Sunlight that is strong enough to raise the temperature of the earth

 

's crust and the atmosphere can now not escape from water vapour with Co2 added to it.However if these dense clouds become even more dense(added Co2) then maybe the sunlight will never reach the earth and we will have another ice age.

a venture into science(part 2)

The prevailing explanation for the gradual increase in world-wide temperatures is that there is an increasing amount of hydrocarbons(CO2) in the atmosphere.Yet studies have shown that there is not a steady trend upwards in hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. In addition there have been more hydrocarbons measured in the atmosphere at other times yet the temperature did not increase beyond today's average temterature. There does not seem to be a strong and steady correlation between the amount of hydrocarbons in the atmosphere and the increase in temperature.Perhaps there are other factors to explain the increase in temperature.For example,the earth may not be in a steady orbit and may be gradually moving closer to the sun.However if this is true may it change it's rotation and move (for awhile) away again from it's present orbit and move further away from the sun.Perhaps.

a venture into science

In younger days it was commonly thought that the universe was stable and not expanding nor decreasing in size.There have been new instruments such as the Hubble Space Mirror and others that can see further into outer space.Consequently new measurements show that the universe is expanding.One estimate is that it has increased by 14% since "the big bang".The big bang is the start of the universe.Elements that were all packed- in together exploded outwards and apparently kept  going. All now show that the universe measurements have indeed expanded.Galaxies and also our solar system are moving outwards.

This means that  the sun and the planets are moving outwards at different speeds.The smaller bodies(planets) are moving faster than the bodies with larger mass such as the sun.This also means that the earth should be moving towards the sun as it is moving faster than the sun.If this is true then the earth should be heating up more and more.This increase would be much more than the increase in temperature from hydrocarbons. But measurements over the last century show only slight increases of 1 to 2 degrees.This does not support the idea that the earth  is moving slowly or faster towards the sun.The apparent reason that the earth stays in a steady orbit and does not move closer  towards the sun is because of centrifugal forces.That is the force that keeps you on the outside of a spinning wheel as it speeds up.It is almost impossible to move towards the centre.This has some consequences on the climate change theories. 

two intermediate producers

This is a look at two intermediate oil and gas producers -Pengrowth and Pennwest.Pengrowth produces more natural gas that Pennwest but Pengrowth is working on developing a heavy oil plant in the oil sands area.Pennwest is slowly(at this stage) divesting some of it's acreage while Pengrowth is  selling only  a little non-core assets.However at this time debt is more of a problem  for Pennwest than it is for Pengrowth.Pennwest has about$2.7 billion in debt while Pengrowth has $1.7 billion but Pengrowth has increased revenue after acquiring another producer called N.A.E Oil and Gas.Pengrowth has negative EBITDA of $66 million while Pennwest has a negative EBITDA of $134 million.Neither will likely have a positive EBITDA for this quarter but Pengrowth will be closer while continuing to generate more revenue from it's oil sands plant.
The price of oil has come down this quarter from the last quarter while natural gas has increased slightly.This will help Pengrowth more than Pennwest and should show a greater increase in revenue for Pengrowth.Look for a small negative EBITDA for Pengrowth and a bigger one for Pennwest.Then investors will have to ask themselves if Pennwest still deserves such a premium in it's stock price.see Workathon for stock market advice

airline stocks

This is a look at three airline stocks-Air Canada,Chorus Aviation,and WestJet.Air Canada has gone from about $2 per share in August to above $5 in October.A dramatic rise that is probably related to their $3 billion refinancing that dramatically increased their assets but gave them negative shareholder equity of $3.34 billion.On the other hand,they have had continually increasing traffic and load factors over 2013.According to stockbroker's reports their earnings per share was $.65 per share with a P/E ratio of 7.97 and Ebitda of $124 million.
Secondly we have Chorus Aviation which has seen a slight increase in traffic and has somewhat restructured their business.They have a maintenance facility in Halifax and have put some recent improvements in it as they also closed down their London facility.This, in order, to make Halifax a first class facility.Chorus has investments in Uruguay and previously in Thomas Cook Charters.Thomas Cook ended it's relationship this year.It is too early to tell whether they will increase their                                  investment in Uruguay  and if it will be profitable.
 Chorus, according to stockbrokers has earnings per share of $1.54 and a P/E ratio of 4.87 and an Ebitda of $117 million.
Chorus has gone through an autopsy of it's agreement with Air Canada it's biggest customer and there should be no major changes in it for awhile.There did not seem to be any major changes to the agreement but Chorus has dropped in price since the revision process.Can Air Canada still have strings to pull on this agreement?It is possible.Chorus' assets are much less than Air Canada but so is it's debt.It has shareholder's equity of only about $150 million.
WestJet has climbed from about $20 in the summer to it's present $25 a share.According to stockbroker's reports it's earnings per share is $1.99 per share and P/E ratio of 12.76 and Ebitda of $341 million.WestJet has higher load factors recently while increasing it's capacity.Revenue should increase in the season near Christmas.
Third quarter earnings will be out soon for all three stocks and it is likely that Chorus and WestJet earnings will increase slightly and Air Canada will likely show an increase in revenue and a healthy drop in earnings if it's debt costs come into play in this quarter.WestJet looks like the winner followed by Chorus.How closely Chorus follows will depend on their investments and the profitability of their Halifax operations.

 

Blame it on the revolution

When Mike Harris was premier he brought in "The Common Sense Revolution".It brought with it government cutbacks and layoffs.But Mike did cut back on government spending as he promised.However there was a backlash from the "revolution".The Liberals got in with big numbers and this brought us Dalton Mcguinty and new increases in government spending.Dalton brought in the P.S.T  to match the federal government's G.S.T The economy of the province at that time was about $650 billion or slightly bigger.Almost as big as Finland.Denmark,Norway and Sweden combined. So a 8% tax would bring in about $50 billion new tax dollars for the government.In addition, Mcguinty ran deficits,at first small ones and then as big as $21 billion.There were government programs for everything.Mcguinty even had a program to pay people to harass others that he disagreed with but did not break any laws.This was his government harassment program and it was popular.
Our new premier continues in his tradition.She has money for traffic lights in the middle of highways and money to start new subdivisions in towns like Wasaga Beach and Collingwood.The government will put in new roads and new sewers and new water lines if you will build and then they have money to help you to build.But they have no money for new jobs.Both of those towns ,for example ,have few new jobs.Midland for example could use a new wing on their hospital for special care like Newmarket has.The government should be lowering education costs so young people have all the skills needed to get new jobs.But mostly our premier needs to reduce the P.S.T so people can afford to live in this province.All of these things will help to create new jobs.

a wildcat but not a panther

I have followed Wildcat Silver for about a year.It is an interesting venture.It is one of the largest orebodies in north America.So far it is undeveloped, although they have done some exploratory drilling to guage the grade and the extent of the orebody.Their price per share has been higher but it was lower recently as the price of silver fell to the $18 an ounce area.The future price
 is uncertain and almost limitless.
Wildcat is now or soon will be looking for cash to develop this huge orebody.They acquired a small gold company recently that had no property but did have some cash on it's balance sheet.This did help them develop a little bit but now they need to move to another plateau.They need more cash!They are coming to a crossroad.There are a number of  possibilities to raising the needed cash.They could follow the route that Sabina Gold and Silver took.They sold a part of their property for cash and royalties on whatever silver was produced.They had an escalating agreement.If production was beyond a certain level the royalty increased but the cash portion seemed to be fixed.Or they could easily have a farm-in agreement;this involves finding a larger partner to develop all or most of their property for cash and a minor or major share in the asset.A more traditional route would involve issuing convertible or non-convertible debentures on the value of the asset.Convertible debentures would be costly because the conversion would be to Wildcat shares which are a little low now until the price of silver goes back up(at least to $28 or$30 an ounce).This would dilute the price of Wildcat shares but non-convertible debentures would not have this problem.However the money must be rolled over or paid back.With low interest rates this is a viable option.
So either selling a part of their large asset and taking a minority or majority partner on the whole asset or coming up with a creative financing deal like Sabina came up with.I like this option and by the way Sabina Gold and Silver has a large orebody also.One way

or another soon Wildcat must do something to become more like Great Panther Silver which has producing mines.

A plan for the mediator

The mediator should invite the president of Aastra Technology to supper tonight or tomorrow night.Supper is on him as he owes him;in fact, we will pay for supper.Take him to the Oakville Holiday Inn as it is fine and it is functional.You tell him that you are prepared to get a court order to prevent Mitel from operating.Then you apply to the O.S.C. to get a trading injunction to stop Mitel from trading.You can tell Aastra and Mitel that you have permission to buy up to 2 million shares once Mitel has dropped more than $.50 per share(which it will).Or Mitel can sell his P.B.X. equipment at a slightly inflated price in return for all Aastra's Mitel shares and some cash.Once Mitel has returned to it's old price please return the capital.

improvements to Workathon

I see one of the visitors to Workathon is the AdSense Watchdog.This is a good thing because that is the way to improve my web page ranking and maybe to get Google AdSense.This is a desirable service.Google feels that I do not have enough visits to merit a higher page ranking.They are probably unaware that the library people are sending interference to my blogs before I can send them out .This way my page visits are showing up on library staff websites(my competitors,not my support ).So the number of page visits shown on my home page is in the hundreds not the thousands.However Google Analytics shows much more visits on my two web sites.At least I know that they seem to be monitoring my web pages.
On a separate issue Wordpress gives me a tweet button and a button for Facebook.That is very nice  of them.I am hoping to get a tweet button and a facebook button on Blogger.Wordpress surely seems more advanced in this one area at least.Google I hope will catch up here.

Invitation to connect on LinkedIn

From dale mcintyre Insurance Professional Lafayette, Louisiana Area I'd like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn. - dale Confirm that you know dale You are receiving Invitation to Connect emails. Unsubscribe © 2012, LinkedIn Corporation. 2029 Stierlin Ct. Mountain View, CA 94043, USA

Price -a leading indicator

I have two websites on Blogger-Workathon and Blogdaleupsome.Both do business consulting and forecasting for small businesses and "small cap" stocks.However I do not get any comments nor gmails that want to use this service.So in fact,I have almost no contact with customers;so how can I expect customers to use my service.Because I inspect the local businesses that I provide advice on and I follow the "small cap" businesses that are listed on the T.S.X(including over the counter).Companies that get advice and resources usually respond by moving up in the price of their shares.This is the best information you can get about a stock,if it is consistent.Prices that move up and down have less meaning ,of course.Prices that move usually mean investors expect an increase in future earnings.This will keep the price up and not fluctuate as much.If earnings increase then there is always the possibility that there could be a dividend in the offing.
Intrinsyc Software was one company that I spent lots of time researching and getting consulting for and finally new resources.But Intrinsyc did not respond in the way that a company that gets help should respond .Their stock is almost dormant.So now a new method must be examined.in addition,Intrinsyc got new resources but their revenue did not increase nor did it's earnings.Obviously a new method must be tried here.Icontact workathon for business advice

A few hiccups

When I first started using Google it was a breath of fresh air.I had been using Wordpress and Facebook to make my blogs.Both had so little space and I got a lot more space with Blogger.I had also used Notepad but had to transfer back to my e-mail.Not so convenient.I had pictures to augment Blogger blogs and Wordpress blogs but only a select few.I couldn't put the pictures I chose;I had to use the ones I was given.
In addition,I had the traffic problem.The number of visitors on my Gadgets page showed 116,500 whereas the number shown on my home page of my blogs were about 730 and 830 visits.Google Analytics showed about 95,000. None have increased much in the last month  although I have written blogs constantly.Google refers to my blog as being active.Also I did not have a web page ranking and sent Google e-mails.I finally got a response and Google ranked me as a 0.In comparison,Wordpress and Tumbler will not give me a web page ranking.Wordpress shows me as having a few visitors although I have more blogs with Wordpress.Finally I have a link to be used for advertising that I can use on my Blogger blogs.I have none on any other web site.

Google's just great

I started working on blogs about a year ago.The first web site I used was Wordpress.I was getting very few features at that time onWordpress (including little space for my blog).So I started reading a book on starting web sites and it stated that Blogger was the best(and well-priced)web site on the internet; it also mentioned Wordpress as being worthy of my time.Since then I have tried a few other web sites including Simplesite ( a Google website) and got ripped off for $25 and got no service at all.Blogger has indeed been the best site to work with.It's text writing equipment is as easy to work with as Microsoft Word.It has good features.
I also tried using Yahoo for text messaging and it was very unreliable for me .I turned to Google Gmail which had a few problems but easier than the others.I tried using Windows Live Mail and found it contained every message that I had ever sent on any service.It got confusing so I returned to Gmail.
I was not as lucky with Google A nalytics or Google Ad Sense.Here I found neither service responsive to my input.I tried sending a message to Mark Anastasi, a mentor of mine but I couldn't get through so he will just have to read my blog if he wants to find out about my thoughts on Google.But certainly at the first I thought Google was great.

 

The New Economy

Many economists,at various times, have talked about the new economy.Sometimes it talked about new production methods or new principles operating the firms in the economy or even new maximizing goals such as maximizing profit or maximizing revenues.Here the new economy talks about a division of the total economy into profit maximizers and a form of cooperative economy.It is uncertain at this time just how big the cooperative economy is.This economy has been started by the government giving away excess tax revenues that it has collected and not applied to the deficit or the debt.It has given away funds to

friends or people that think like them and will in a time of stress and criticism will defend them.These receivers of funds in effect cooperate with the government.It is not a relationship based on price nor on maximizing anything;it is based on enduring through thick and thin no matter what the cost to others outside the system.Workers in the system do not try to be pleasant to outsiders nor even be efficient nor polite.They just exist and be somewhat friendly to each other.It is not clear yet how moneys are handed out to the receivers of funds but it is probably based on the help they get or how strong they are."The strongest tree will withstand the strongest storm".
The source for this "new economy" is unused G.S.T tax money and I believe over time this money will be taken out of the hands of the government completely and given back to the people who earned it.Sadly this is not yet the case.

a day in the bank

I have trouble with every financial institution in this country.It is like I took the cherry off their sundae.Today I was in the Meridian Credit Union.I deal mostly with Cynthia and Sue.They give me help begrudgingly as they forget what it was like to get started.However today Cynthia did begrudgingly help me so Monday there will be two small notes;one may be a local note.Cynthia did try a small dirty trick so we'll see how I feel on Monday.see workathonfor business analysis and forecasting

That's odd

If all those calculations about collecting G.S.T. money and not applying it to the government debt or deficit is correct then why doesn't the Auditor General tell Canadians.The first Auditor General to be exposed to this problem was probably Denis Desauteils.I am sure he was properly trained in accounting but when he fist saw Mulroney's stash he must have redone all his ledgers and couldn't believe it.So much money unaccounted for with no  explanation by the government.He would have requested a private meeting and got it.Mulroney told him at first to keep quiet and all would be explained.But quarter after quarter the "private treasury" grew and grew.Desauteils would have found extras for himself everywhere but still no explanation of Mulroney's stash.Next it is likely that he was told about political reasons beyond his understanding and given bonuses and bonuses.When Chretien comes in it will be all cleared up.Chretien came in and did the same and the A uditor General knew he was in trouble.There would be no changes and the Mounties would bother him if he revealed this mess;he would threaten National Security.By now Denis had taken so many "freebies" that he also would be in trouble for taking extras; he could be blackmailed for taking extra money and not reporting it when he should have.When Sheila Fraser came along Denis was told to train her the right way and offer her "freebies" also.Sheila became a bookkeeper with an extra bank account in Switzerland.These facts may not be 100% accurate  but the missing money is accurate.

P.B.S. gets another project

Padgett Business Systems (P.B.S.) is aware that I will be coming to see them for a personal project.In fact ,the reason for choosing them is that they were available for a return favour should one be required.And now it is required.Of course,I also promote small companies and try to make them grow.Before that happens I have another project.I want them to buy(through their broker) 500,000 shares of Pulse Data for Data Group In come Fund and 25,000 International Datacasting shares and 25,000 Hosted Data Transaction shares for Data Group In come Fund.Pulse Data is one I have helped considerably in the past and has done very little with it.Now they will be helping Data Group Income Fund.P.B.S. will be looking at doing organization changes in the future to improve this growing company.

THE DEPUTY AND I

My problems with the deputy minister of Revenue Canada started in 2000.I filled out my income tax and I was only on C.P.P. disability for income.With my credits I should have gotten about $1000 in refunds.I didn't even take all my credits.But I could get no refund for 2000,2001,and2002.I went to an income tax preparer and she offered to give me half of my refund if she got it.She knew the deputy would not give it to me and would give it to her.She was right and I got half of my return for these three years.
Next I got my superannuation going back to 1988 and a return of my pension from Public Work .I had to return my pension and put it in a R.R.S.P. But the deputy will not tell me how to get it nor how much interest it is earning.In fact they will not answer my phone calls nor my e-mails.I can't get my hands on my pension.
I was also supposed to get a second part to my superannuation but the deputy kept it for future income tax payments.I was told that I could not get my second payment in a cheque.A civil servant (who answered the phone )told me that he would give me $20,000 in cash if he could keep my cheque.I declined but I realized again that everyone knows that the deputy will not give me my money.
Lastly in 2008 when I got my superannuation back pay(in a lump sum) I counted it as being paid over 8 years.This is according to Revenue Canada circulars.I also checked with two accountants and they told me that what I did was proper.But Revenue Canada refuses to let me take it over 8 years.They want me to consider it as being paid in one year.This makes my income tax as being three to four times more (including a provincial tax surplus).Once again the deputy will not give my money.

Cash for investment in equipment

An earlier blog talked about the lack of investment in research and productivity in Canada.It was also pointed out that Canada is a leader in applied productivity and applied research.Canadians know how to modify existing technology to increase productivity.Canadians also know how to make use of older equipment to get the job done.
The government does have some productivity programs as well.They also have the Business Development Bank which serves as a lender of last resorts.But the total program funds available for productivity is quite small.There is much more funds available for what I am calling social programming.This does little for productivity.Spending from social programming goes basically to staples -food,licquor,and housing.These areas show little increase in productivity with an increase in demand.The cost of a house does not come down much if you build two,three or more.The government tries to remedy this by giving outright grants and bonuses to technology companies.They have an increase in cash balances on their books.But do they spend any of this new cash on investment?Probably not.

Applied productivity

The I.M.F. and O.E.C.D show that Canada is the lowest in the G-8 in investment and research in technology.This does not only cover technology companies but technology from other industries  as well.This is partly because our technology companies are not very profitable;they have little profit to invest and so invest in areas that have more impact.So they don't spend money on inventing a new lightbulb;they spend it on making it work better.The I.M.F states that Canada leads the G-8 in applied research.Also Canadian equipment is older on average than American equipment and most G-8 countries.
That is why in my program I didn't spend money on new research.I also spent money on modifying existing

ways of doing business.I did not try to find a new and cheaper L.N.G.plant but how to build it quicker and efficiently.I did not try to start new technology companies but operate existing ones better.The kernel of my program was put on efficiency.If you do things better then you will make more profit.I also put a heavy emphasis on used equipment.I rarely recommended new loaders or bulldozers.The extra cost was only depreciation;a three old tractor works almost as good and costs less.Once again applied productivity.This was and is the Canadian way.

the government is trying to help us

A number of blogs on Workathon talk about the "too strong " role by the governme

nts(provincial and federal) in the economy.I have stated that economic growth would increase if less tax revenues were delivered into the hands of the government.It has even been speculated that the governments have dabbled in social programming where (friends) have gotten special treatment and income (unfriendlies) have not done as well as in a neutral situation.This kind of programming would put money into administration and materials that would have less of a trickle-down effect.The result of this behaviour ,if true,would reduce the government's economic multiplier even more.So far this does  not seem to be true.

the provincial take

A previous blog talked about the"ordinary" budgetary revenue which  is separate from revenue from G.S.T.or P.S.T. and from the deficit revenues.I don't have data on the ordinary provincial             budget revenues but I do on the federal budget.A few years ago it was about $130 billion.So I estimated that now it is about $145 to $150 billion  with ordinary growth .The usual figure used to derive provincial data is 40%.That is,Ontario is about 40%of the Canadian population and 40% of the Canadian economy.So I estimated that the provincial budget was about $60 billion before deficits and P.S.T. revenues.This year the deficit  is about $16 billion(in 2010 it was about $21 billion).The P.S.T revenues at 8% of total income comes in at about $55 billion as the Ontario economy is about $700 billion.So the total government revenues come to about $130 billion in 2012.In addition,the revenue that comes out of the Ontario economy from the federal G.S.T tax is about $35 billion.So the total government revenue that comes out of the Ontario economy is about equal to $130 billion.This becomes a problem because the Ontario growth rate is slowing down considerably and a good part of it is because of too much money in the hands of the government.As everyone knows the consumer multiplier is larger than the government multiplier.

a watchdog with one eye on the sheep

There are a number of  "watchdog" institutions in Ottawa.The first was the Economic Council of Canada.It was a very gentle watchdog with rarely a harsh word to say.It was followed by the Conference Board and the C.D.Howe Institute.They kept a close eye on the government's economic forecasts and of course their budgets.They proved to be worthwhile when there was very little to watch.In effect, they were good at saving millions.But when the federal government was collecting G.S.T revenue and the deficit kept rising from $5 billion in 1991 to $42 billion in 2001 or 2002 the watch dogs were silent.Good at saving millions but not at saving billions.What can explain this lack of vigilance?

The most extreme situation was in 2009 when the department announced a forthcoming $13 billion surplus and Mr. Flaherty announced first a$25 billion deficit and finally a $56 billion deficit.This all within six weeks.The watchdogs should have been howling but were silent.It is possible that Mr. Flaherty was very clever and assembled these guys and explained that there was some crisis on the horizon.He needed the money to solve this crisis.He may have even increased their budgets a little bit.But how did he explain away a $40 to $46 billion deficit with the economy picking up and more G.S.T. revenue coming in?This is a mystery but Mr.Flaherty did a god job because we still have a deficit until 2015 and G.S.T revenues have increased every year.What can the watchdogs say about this?I don't know but soon there will be no more sheep left to watch.

a frivolous action in court

A previous blog on Workathon talked about the dubious actions by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.In fact, the court ruled that my claim and the following motion were frivolous actions and fined me $10,000  for bringing such frivolous actions before the court.This I find to be a travesty.

The defendant had not made a defence to be filed nor was it served on the plaintiff.I had made a requisition for the defendant to be noted in default and then a requisition for a default judgement. I notified the court clerk that I would be making a motion for summary judgement the next day and she said that the defendant was making a motion on that day.It was a motion to dismiss the requisition for being noted in default.The judge should have dismissed the entire action as no defence was filed and no Factum Book was filed.In fact, the motion had not been properly filed  ;it was filed in court.The judge accepted the motion for dismissal.The grounds were that my claim was filed on the short form and not the long form.Whereas Statute 76 states that these forms were convertible.It was purely a clerical matter.Nevertheless the judge dismissed my requisition for being noted in default but not my default judgement.

Later at my motion hearing the defendant improperly                   filed a motion for dismissal for my default judgement again at the last minute.The judge heard the defandant's motion first and I could only respond to points he made except in my summary argument.The judge again heard the defendant's motion although he had not filed a defence nor a Factum Book.Perhapsit helped that the defendant was the Scotiabank.After all these improper judicial procedures the court ruled that I had a frivolous action and fined me (not the defendant) a $10,000 fine.

theCanadian judiciary strikes

A previous blog on Workathon described the usage of illegal evictions and illegal foreclosures to take away my three houses in Cambridge,Ontario.In fact, this whole process was illegal and done almost completely without the use of any legal procedures except for registering the power of sale transaction in the Land Registry Office.All three transactions were recorded at well below "fair market price". Statute requires the sale at fair market price.

So I decided to test the legality of these three transactions in court.I took one to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice in Brampton and two before the Ontario Court of Justice in Barrie.I had a default judgement in Brampton court and as I went to bring a motion for summary judgement a judgement dismissing my action was put on the file although there was no defence nor factum book.There was no grounds  for the decision just the judgement.

In Barrie court I had a motion hearing.Although the defendant had not filed nor served a defence nor a factum book and he filed his motion at the last minute(in court).The judge (in both claims) decided to hear the defendant's motion first.So none of my evidence was heard except as an objection to a point made by the defendant.I had to make all my points in my summary of five minutes.It is no wonder that the judge in all three claims decided that my motion was frivolous and a waste of the court's time.It is a wonder however that the judges fined me $10,000 and in favour of a defendant with no filed nor served defence.  

whose pension is it?

When I was in Ottawa I had a few good jobs so I accumulated a sizeable pension after thirteen years in the civil service.In fact,my pension was reported to me as being $37,900.I was broke and confused after losing my government job.I had a pile of assets but no cash.So after talking to the general manager of the CSCOOP he explained that I could get my pension money if I paid ten percent withholding tax and I signed a letter stating that I needed the funds for essential items.I did and he released the funds minus the withholding tax.

In a previous blog I explained that I spent a considerable amount of time getting superannuation and pension from the civil service.I got one cheque but they held back about $120,000 for the second payment.A second payment I never got because they kept it for prepaid income tax.I did get money for my pension($37,900) but I couldn't touch it.I had to put it back into my pension.That was September2008.In September2011  I got papers saying that I earned $5000 in interest income.I knew the pension was put into a R.R.S.P. so I figured the income was coming from my pension.I called and emailed my pension administrator about how to get my pension and got no response.One email stated that I should talk to Revenue Canada.I went into the local office and talked to several agents and they said only Public Works  knew the location and amount of my pension.

I talked to two M.P.s about getting the pension and where it was Neither M.P. would tell me.So right now I am wondering just whose pension is it anyway?

in between the shows

I did a study on the Canadian broadcasting industry and I found out that there was no profit between the years of 2000 and 2011.Quite flat.The Thompsons bought CTV for $1.3 billion and sold it three years later at the same price but now it included a few CHUM television stations.I feel that there is not enough creativity to draw the audiences needed to get increasing advertising revenues.If you have a real unique product you probably are not advertising on Cnadian television.There are other places to advertise.

I think that the quality of programming on Canadian television has fallen over the last five years.Movies are shown five or six times rather than two.The networks are showing programming not as interesting as the specialty channels.One of the reasons is probably that budgets are smaller.If you look closely at the advertising you will see that the mix is different than before.Every channel uses this space to advertise their own shows.There is a lot of advertising time that goes to government programs.There is a lot of time for advertising for Bell Canada.Stations advertise their shows on other stations.This time does not bring much revenue in.There is also a lot more local advertising than before.Instead of five ads for  Pizza Pizza;there are now three and two for Joe's Pizza down the street.Lots of advertisements for local real estate agents.This makes less competition for the remaining real time.Here is the ads for new cars and new computer equipment and ads for cable companies.

There is not enough advertising time for new products and almost never any new,innovative products.But that is what is in between the shows.It is my feeling that the gap or residual is made up by donations from governments and other agencies.

RevenueCanada is too busy

I was in the Oshawa and Newcastle area for quite awhile.I was working on getting my federal civil service pension and superannuation.I dealt mostly with the federal and provincial members of parliament-Bev Oda and John Otoole.I spent months and months filling out forms and making phone calls.I also got a lot of help from Garfield Dunlop's office in Orillia.Final details and new forms were signed in the member(federal) for Oshawa.I got a cheque sent to Kitchener where I was staying in a hostel.The cheque apparently came from Oshawa.

I got one cheque and the stub said there was a second payment to be made later.Also they held back my pension;the payment was for superannuation only.I checked with the Department of Public Works and they said Revenue Canada would be sending the cheque .I called Revenue Canada several times and one officer asked me if I wanted cash.I said yes and he said he would give me $20,000 in cash for a $100,000 cheque.I declined.

I checked on the value of my pension with Revenue Canada and they said it was originally $38,000 and now was up to about $43,000 but I couldn't get my hands on it.Now it should be up to about$45,000(with interest earned).I tried to get help from the member for Collingwood,KellieLeitch, but she wouldn't come into her office and refuses to answer e-mails.She will not help me get my pension!

I decided to use the $100,000 as a deposit to be used to pay my income tax.After getting some R.R.S.P'S  and lots of other credits  I had a refund coming from Revenue Canada.Every year I use some of the $100,000 to get refunds.Now Revenue Canada owes me about $50,000 in back taxes.This in addition to my pension which I could use to buy a house.The problem is that Revenue Canada is too busy! 

the deficit years

In a previous blog I talked about the surplus predicted by the department of Finance but the correction by the Minister several weeks later.The final deficit was $69 billion greater than first predicted by the department.At the same time there was little noise from the "finance watchdogs".This is not a prediction error;this is merely the Minister asking for more money for his projects.This addition is on top of the ordinary program increase built in from last year.

It must be remembered that the deficit amounts are not tremenduously sensitive to the economic growth rate.The economy was in recession in 2009 but not by such a tremenduous amount.And in fact, the economy turned up in 2010 yet Mr.Flaherty still called for a deficit.The newspapers are not clear on the amount;I believe it changed at mid-year.But it was between $40 and $46 billion.The growth rate was fairly robust in 2011 and again Mr.Flaherty called for a deficit.This time it looked to be about $20 billion but these figures are not easy to find.There will likely be a deficit  until 2015.Then we can expect a balanced budget.

So here we have a slightly decreasing deficit while there is an increasing economic growth rate.At the same time the revenues from the G.ST. tax continue to grow by 1.5 to 3% each year.The point easily seen here is that the deficit doesn't seem to be connected to the positive growth rate.It  was still very large as the economy picked up.Secondly the additional discretionary revenue from the budget  deficits total about $130 to$140 billion.Added to the $660 billion from collected G.S.T. revenue not applied to the deficit this totals about $880 billion.Probably the department has a better idea what this "discretionary government revenue" was used for than I do.

The department and the Minister of Finance

In the days of Donald MacDonald and even Paul Martin, as the Minister of Finance, the tradition was that the Minister would give his forecast of the budget deficit or surplus a little before the actual numbers came out.Next the department of Finance would come out(before television) with the almost solid numbers that would be the budget numbers.I have had some experience with the department of finance and know that these numbers were indeed rock solid numbers.However the minister(especially Paul Martin) had a habit of adding $500 million or a billion onto the department's numbers.No one in Ottawa minded because it was probably a pet project of Paul Martin's and for sure it would be worthwhile.However this set the trend for the Minister's forecast being different from the Department.Nevertheless the watch dogs made a big noise over this procedure for a small amount of money.

Jim Flaherty,the present Minister of Finance, obviously saw this trend and Jim Flaherty embellished on it.In 2009 the Department of Finance made their forecast about a month before the actual budget figures would be released.The department said there would be a $13 billion surplus.The economy was picking up and the G.S.T tax was bringing it  in as usual.Mr. Flaherty made his presentation inside parliament which were not privy to but (I believe) it was not going to be accepted.He came outside of parliament and stated there would likely be a $25 billion deficit.He explained that 2008 had been a year of recession and so a deficit was likely.Another two or three weeks later he revised his deficit figures upwards to $40 billion.The department was silent on this revision.Mr.Flaherty's final deficit figure was a whopping $56 billion.It is very hard to imagine that the department of Finance with their very accurate forecasting models could have been so inaccurate.However it is clear now that Jim Flaherty made very different assumptions about spending government deficits than he gave to the department of Finance.Amazingly both the department and the watch dogs(such as The Conference Board) were at first silent and then in complete agreement with the Minister.So then Jim Flaherty completely changed the dynamic between himself and the department of Finance.And I believe between himself and parliament although that is for others to say.One thing is clear that Jim Flaherty has been very persuasive in convincing the Department of Finance to see that their models and their experts are wrong.

the other years

A previous blog concluded that about $738 billion in tax revenues was collected between 1991 and 2002 that was not applied towards the budget deficit nor the federal debt. But how much was collected and not spent from 2003 to 2013.This amount has to be estimated because it is not easily discovered.We start with the increase in the G.D.P. between 2003 and 2013.The economy increased from about$1.20 trillion to near $1.7 trillion.An increase of  $.5trillion or an increase of about 42% or almost 4.5%(not quite10 years).This increase of about 4.5% a year will be applied to the deficit.So the deficit would increase from $42 billion to about $60 billion.At the same time the G.S.T.tax went from about $85 billion to about$110 billion in 2009.In 2009 the tax was changed to 5% from 7% but there still was about $80 billion collected in 2010 and $85 billion in 2012.In very gross terms this would amount to another $220 to $240 billion collected and not spent on the growing deficit.This exercise allows that the deficit will grow by 4.5% per year.

If these increases in the deficit are close to being correct then the total of revenues collected but spent on the deficit would be about $660 billion from 1991 to 2013.This however does not allow for  the huge deficit that the Minister of Finance asked for in 2010 and 2011 and 2012.What can this money be used for? 

all the collected G.S.T.revenue

Two or three previous blogs have talked about G.S.T. tax revenue that has been collected but not applied towards the federal government budget deficit as it was intended.But how much does this revenue amount to?The G.S.T tax was put on, in the summer of 1991.So it was for 7% for half a year on half the goods and services.The economy was about$720 billion.So it is estimated that for the first year they collected about $11 billion.The next full year about $22 billion was collected.In 1994 (when Jean Chretien was elected)the tax was extended to all goods and services and close to $50 billion was collected.No money was applied to the deficit until Paul Martin did in his second year.I believe the year was2002.The economy was about $1.25 trillion at this time.So Paul Martin collected about $85 billion.The deficit had climbed every single year until then.Now the deficit was a whopping $42 billion.All parties jokingly refer to Paul Martin as the man who slayed the deficit.He took $85 billion and paid off $42 billion.Finally the G.S.T was used the way it was intendedAfter this year it is hard to calculate how much was used to pay the deficit.However G.S.T revenues continued to climb until 2009 when the tax was reduced to 5%.In 2009 the economy was about $1.5 trillion in size.That year the G.S.T.revenues were about$105 billion.The next year with a reduced tax rate they only collected about $80 billion -a real setback.

If you add all the revenuescollected but not applied to the budgetary deficit up to2002 the revanues amount to close to$738 billion.What did the government do with all this money?We can only speculate and speculate we will in another blog.

an illegal eviction

A previous blog described my dealings with the Canadian judiciary. In fact, I told how I had lost three houses in Cambridge,Ontario and got nothing back in consideration.All three cases I brought before the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.All three were considered frivolous by the Canadian  judiciary.In fact,the judges fined me $10,000 for bringing frivolous actions before the court.

This whole process started when two property managers(from the banks in question ) and in the third case a bailiff for the Kitchener court evicted me.There was no Notice of Eviction given to me nor my lawyer.In fact, a proper eviction should be brought before the court and contested by both parties.But the three evictions were nev
er entered before the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.

So although there never was a proper eviction six weeks after each eviction was carried out there was a Power of Sale transaction.In order to get a quick sale the bank took less than market value for each property.One sold for $40,000 and one for $60,000 and one for $100,000.These properties were worth$225,000 to $425,000.I had made a lot of improvements in a short period of time.The equity I had in these three properties was equal to about $350,000.I had mortgages on each property which reduced the equity in the houses.Ontario Annual Practices states that in a power of sale the bank must be sure to get "fair market value".$60,000 for a $350,000 house does not meet that standard.

This is an example of what I have referred previously as a "wild west" approach to judicial practices.In this case at tremenduous cost to myself.

The Red Book

Jean Chretien defeated Brian Mulroney at the polls.The year was 1993 and he apparently won on the red book.It was a complete plan of what the liberals would do once elected.The main platform was scrapping the G.S.T. tax. but once he got in he expanded the tax to be on all goods and services.Formerly it applied to only half of the goods and services.Now the effective tax rate was truly 7% whereas before the effective rate was only about 3.5%.Chretien probably came to this conclusion when he saw the federal government budget deficit climb every year from1991 to1994.So in 1994 the new rate was in effect.

At this time the G.N.P. was about $770 billion.Now the amount of tax collected was about $50 billion a year. He was now well armed to slay the budget deficit.However strangely it climbed every year during his regime.His Minister of Finance during these years was a man called Paul Martin.